The world of Tzu Chi April 2020 (Vol.121)

Muhyiddin Yassin declared a two-week extension for the MCO, which was originally scheduled to conclude on March 31. The decision to extend the MCO by 14 days was not so much an arbitrary choice as an observance of the estimated 14-day incubation period of Covid-19. The “incubation period” refers to the interval between the time of infection and the emergence of symptoms associated with the disease. Here, we illustrate the context in which individuals risk infection, starting with categorizing a community or a group of people into four sub-groups, each labelled A, B, C and D respectively. A represents an individual who has a history of coming into contact with a Covid-19 patient. Those in the A cluster might be scattered across a wide geographical area, but are relatively easier to identify for quarantine due to their direct links to those who have tested positive for Covid-19. Prior to quarantine, A is likely to have contracted the disease from a Covid-19 patient but has yet to exhibit symptoms. During the incubation period, A might have travelled to public places such as the airport, bus stops, supermarkets or even entered a cab. As A moves around, he or she might have passed on the virus to a complete stranger, B in the process. A proceeds to travel to a stipulated venue to meet a friend, C. C is subsequently traceable, if he or she develops symptoms, upon obtaining information on A ’s whereabouts or travel history. On the other hand, D represents an individual who has been on home quarantine since the onset of the outbreak, hence he or she is considered comparatively safe. However, B remains unidentified. The Covid-19 disease is known to be contagious during the incubation period, hence if D ventures outdoors, there is a possibility that he or she will come into contact with B and inadvertently add to the number of unidentified potential Covid-19 carriers, or in other words, a new member of the B cluster. Therefore, the stay-at-home order is imposed as part of the efforts to detect the group of individuals represented by B . Some or all of those in the B cluster who display symptoms during the incubation period are then tracked down and quarantined, effectively disrupting the chain of infection and slowing the spread of the disease. A Washington Post article titled “Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” illustrated the prospective impact of social distancing measures through graphic simulations that reflect the trajectory of the coronavirus as its spreads among and across communities. In the article, public health experts and researchers highlighted the necessity of avoiding public spaces during the pandemic and compared the outcomes of four social distancing patterns, namely free-for-all, attempted quarantine, moderate distancing and extensive distancing. The visual scenarios showed that extensive social distancing works the best of all. On March 25, Health Director-General Datuk Dr. Noor HishamAbdullah posted a brief statement on his Facebook page, imploring Malaysians to abide by the MCO: “Failure is not an option, otherwise, we might face the third wave of the virus. The next one will be as big as a tsunami, more so if we have a lackadaisical attitude.” During this critical period, let us all do our part and stay at home to stop Covid-19 in its tracks. Sources: Laihua Media, Washington Post TZU CHI 121 15 Coming Together in Times of Crisis